Many Black Friday discounts are manufactured. A 2025 study tracked 25 major retailers for 24 weeks and found that most 'sale prices' were continuous — the 'regular' price was rarely the price the item actually sold at. Retailers inflate reference prices weeks before Black Friday specifically to make the 'discount' look larger. A TV advertised at $536 'down from $860' on Black Friday 2025 had sold for $485 in August — the shopper paid more than the pre-Black Friday price.
The three tools that expose fake deals: CamelCamelCamel for Amazon price history, Google Shopping price comparison, and tracking your own spending in real time with AI Expense Notebook so a 'great deal' doesn't blow your actual budget.
The Evidence: What a 24-Week Retailer Study Found
In 2025, a research group tracked 25 major US retailers across 25+ product categories every week for 24 weeks — power tools at Home Depot, clothing at Kohl's, electronics at Best Buy, and more. The findings were damning.
Study Finding: Discounts at most major retailers were continuous — meaning retailers rarely, if ever, intended to sell items at the listed 'regular' price. The 'was' price on a sale tag is frequently a price that existed briefly — sometimes only for a few days — specifically so the retailer could advertise a percentage discount against it. Over the 10 years of similar studies conducted since 2015, fake sales have become far more prevalent. Source: Checkbook/InvestigateTV, July 2026
A specific example that circulated on Reddit during Black Friday 2025 illustrates the pattern perfectly:
Real Example — Black Friday 2025: A TV was advertised at $536 on Black Friday — supposedly marked down from $860, a saving of $324 (37%). Price tracking data showed the same TV sold for $485 in August — three months before Black Friday. The shopper paying the 'discounted' Black Friday price of $536 paid $51 MORE than the regular summer price. The 'discount' was calculated against a reference price that was itself inflated for Black Friday. Source: Xinhua/Reddit user price tracking, November 2025.
This is not an isolated case. Oxylabs tracked nearly 10,000 unique tech products in the three months before Black Friday 2024 and found that 37% of the hottest tech products saw significant price hikes in the weeks immediately before the event — creating the impression of a steep Black Friday discount against a price that had been artificially elevated.
→ See also: How to build a real Black Friday budget before shopping
It's (Mostly) Legal — And That's What Makes It Effective
The practice of inflating reference prices exists in a grey area that regulators are only beginning to properly address. Here is where the law stands in 2026:
United States — The FTC Standard
The Federal Trade Commission's rules on 'former price comparisons' state that advertising a discount is illegal if the former price is 'not bona fide but fictitious' — specifically, if an artificial, inflated price was established for the purpose of enabling a subsequent 'bargain' claim. But enforcement is limited. The burden of proof is high. Most retailers operate within technical compliance by setting a 'regular' price and selling at that price for a brief period — sometimes days — before marking it down. The 'regular' price existed. Briefly.
Canada — Formal Warning Issued November 2025
Canada's Competition Bureau took a harder line. In November 2025 — timed specifically to Black Friday — the Bureau issued a formal public warning stating it is illegal to advertise fake discounts by promoting a made-up 'regular price.' The Bureau stated explicitly: businesses 'cannot invent a higher regular price to make a sale look like a bargain when it's not.' This is an unusually direct regulatory intervention for a consumer event.
United Kingdom — The ASA and CAP Code
The UK's Advertising Standards Authority requires that a 'was' price must have been the genuine selling price for a meaningful period before the offer. The Competition and Markets Authority has taken action against retailers for misleading pricing. Despite this, the Chartered Trading Standards Institute flagged Black Friday as a persistent area of concern every year since 2016.
California has the most explicit definition: under California law, a 'fake discount' exists if the seller cannot prove that discounted items were regularly offered at their advertised former prices for at least 50% of the time (45 days) during the 3 months before the discount. Oxylabs' research found many Black Friday tech 'deals' failed this test. (Source: Oxylabs / TechRadar, 2025).
The 5 Specific Techniques Retailers Use to Manufacture Discounts
Understanding the exact mechanisms helps you identify them in real time. These are the five most common pricing illusions used during Black Friday:
Technique 1: The Pre-Event Price Hike
The most documented technique: a retailer raises the 'regular' price of an item in September or October specifically to create a larger percentage discount on Black Friday. The item's real market price — the one it sold at for most of the year — becomes invisible. What shoppers see is a dramatic percentage off a number that was never the true selling price.
→ Real evidence: A $200 item is raised to $320 in October. On Black Friday: 'Was $320, Now $200 — 38% off.' The shopper pays the item's normal price and feels like they saved $120.
→ How to counter it: Check price history for September and earlier — not just the weeks before Black Friday.
Technique 2: The Manufactured 'Compare At' Price
Many retailers — particularly clothing stores — use a 'Compare At' or 'Retail Value' price that refers to what the item might cost elsewhere, not what the retailer ever charged for it. A shirt with a 'Compare At $149' tag and a sale price of $89 sounds like a 40% saving. But if the shirt was always $89 at that store, there is no saving — just a number on a tag.
→ Real evidence: Macy's was investigated in 2026 after researchers found a shirt 'marked 40% off $149' that should have been $65 at the claimed discount — but was listed at $89, suggesting the $149 reference price was inflated. Source: InvestigateTV, July 2026.
→ How to counter it: The relevant price is what that retailer charges normally — not what a competitor might charge.
Technique 3: The Phantom 'Suggested Retail Price'
MSRP (Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price) is set by the manufacturer and is frequently 30–50% above what the product actually sells for anywhere. Advertising a discount against MSRP is technically legal in most jurisdictions but creates a completely misleading picture of the saving. Nobody pays MSRP. 'Was MSRP $599, Now $349' might mean the item sells for $349 in every store, every day of the year.
→ Real evidence: 'MSRP $599' doesn't mean anyone ever paid $599. It means the manufacturer printed a suggested price on the box.
→ How to counter it: Search the item across multiple retailers before Black Friday. If every store sells it for $349 in October, the 'MSRP' discount is noise.
Technique 4: The Bundle Illusion
A high-demand product is bundled with accessories, peripherals, or extras that individually carry inflated valuations. '$499 laptop + $120 mouse + $80 sleeve + $60 warranty = $759 value, yours for $499.' But the mouse is a $14 unit retailed at $120 for the bundle comparison. The sleeve is own-brand at $8 cost. The warranty is pure margin. You're paying $499 for a $499 laptop and receiving accessories whose stated value was constructed for the comparison.
→ Real evidence: The bundle 'value' exists only in the retailer's price list for the comparison. Individual component prices in the open market tell a different story.
→ How to counter it: Search every bundle component individually before Black Friday. Add up real market prices. Compare to bundle price. If the saving is real — buy it. If the 'value' was constructed — skip it.
Technique 5: Dynamic Pricing Around Black Friday
AI-driven dynamic pricing systems adjust prices continuously based on demand, competitor pricing, and consumer behaviour signals. In 2025, retailers deploying AI pricing maximised profit through personalised price adjustments and strategic inflation before events. Your Black Friday price for an item may differ from someone else's. Prices can rise and fall within hours. The '11am price' may be different from the '3pm price' on the same day.
→ Real evidence: Retailers are deploying AI to maximise profit through dynamic pricing. Consumers are increasingly using AI to identify authentic deals. Analysts describe the result as a stalemate. Source: Deloitte / Xinhua, November 2025.
→ How to counter it: Screenshot the price when you first see it. If you return to it later and the price has changed, you're seeing dynamic pricing in action.
The 3-Tool Test: How to Verify Any Black Friday Deal in Under 2 Minutes
You don't need to be a data scientist to spot a fake deal. Three free tools give you everything you need to verify any Black Friday price before you buy. Do this in October for items on your list — and again on the day if you see something new.
Tool 1: CamelCamelCamel — Amazon Price History
Paste any Amazon product URL into CamelCamelCamel. It shows you the full price history of that item going back years — every price change, every spike, every genuine low. If the Amazon 'was' price was only set 2 weeks before Black Friday and the item sold for less in August, you're looking at a manufactured reference. If the price is genuinely the lowest in 12 months — it's a real deal.
Free. No account needed. Works on any Amazon product URL.
Tool 2: Google Shopping — Cross-Retailer Price Comparison
Search any product on Google Shopping and set a price alert. Google shows you prices across all major retailers simultaneously. If Best Buy has a TV at '$536 — Black Friday deal' and every other retailer shows the same TV at $480–$510, the 'deal' is actually above market price. Set alerts for items on your list in October — you'll be notified of genuine drops before Black Friday arrives.
Free. Set alerts for items — no need to check manually every day.
Tool 3: AI Expense Notebook — Track What You Actually Spend
The third tool is about you, not the retailer. A real deal at the wrong budget moment is still a budget problem. Set your Black Friday spending category limits in AI Expense Notebook before the event. Log every purchase immediately — in-store with AI Magic Scan (3 seconds), online with manual entry (8 seconds). Check your remaining budget bar before every purchase decision. A 'deal' that pushes you into credit card territory is not a saving — it's a purchase you couldn't afford at any price.
Free on iOS and Android. No bank account connection required.
What a Genuine Black Friday Deal Actually Looks Like
Not everything is manufactured. Genuine Black Friday deals exist — particularly in categories where retailers legitimately need to clear inventory or where competition forces real price cuts. Here is how to recognise one:
Signal | Fake Deal | Real Deal |
Price history | Reference price set 2–6 weeks before BF only | Below the price for 90+ days prior — verifiable on CamelCamelCamel |
Cross-retailer price | Only this retailer shows the 'discount' | Multiple retailers all reduced — market-wide movement |
Category | Fashion, homewares, bundled accessories | TVs, laptops (end of model year), seasonal goods being cleared |
Timing | 'Limited time' expires and restarts every few hours | One price, one window — either it sells or it doesn't |
Your reaction | Urgent, exciting, didn't plan to buy this | It's on your pre-written list at or below your researched price |
Stock behaviour | 'Only 2 left' but restocks after 'selling out' | Sells out and stays out — genuine inventory clearance |
The best genuine Black Friday deals tend to be on large electronics at end of product cycle (last year's TV model when the new one launches), genuine seasonal clearance (summer gear in November), and software/subscriptions where the marginal cost of a sale is near zero. These categories see real reductions because retailers have real reasons to sell.
The Real Saving Isn't in the Deal — It's in Your Budget
Here is the uncomfortable truth the price illusion obscures: a 40% discount on something you didn't need isn't a saving. It's 60% of an unnecessary expense.
The consumers who consistently come out ahead of Black Friday every year are not the ones who find the deepest discounts. They're the ones who bought what they planned to buy, at a price they verified in advance, within a budget they set before the event started.
How AI Expense Notebook fits into this: Set your Black Friday budget by category before November. Log every purchase in real time — in-store with AI Magic Scan in 3 seconds, online with manual entry in 8 seconds. Check your remaining balance before every purchase decision. A deal that empties your budget isn't a deal — it's the retailers winning. A deal on your list, at the verified price, inside your budget: that's an actual saving. Download free on iOS and Android. No bank connection required.
Download free: App Store (iOS) · Google Play (Android)
→ See also: How to save money for Christmas
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Are Black Friday deals real or fake?
Many Black Friday discounts are manufactured. A 2025 study by Checkbook tracked 25 major US retailers for 24 weeks and found most 'sale prices' were continuous — the 'regular' price was rarely the genuine selling price. 37% of top tech products saw price hikes in the weeks before Black Friday 2024, inflating the reference price to make the 'discount' look larger. Real deals exist — particularly on end-of-cycle electronics and genuine inventory clearance — but they require verification.
Q: How do retailers fake Black Friday discounts?
The most common technique: raise the item's 'regular' price in October, then discount it back to the normal price on Black Friday. A TV that sold for $485 in August was advertised at '$536 — down from $860' on Black Friday 2025. Other techniques include 'Compare At' prices that were never the retailer's own selling price, MSRP anchoring against a price nobody pays, and bundle 'value' constructed using inflated component pricing.
Q: Is it illegal to advertise fake Black Friday discounts?
In most jurisdictions, it is illegal to advertise a discount against a 'regular price' that was never a genuine selling price. The FTC in the US, the Competition Bureau in Canada, and the ASA in the UK all prohibit fictitious former pricing. Canada's Competition Bureau issued a formal public warning in November 2025 specifically about fake Black Friday discounts. Enforcement is inconsistent, and many retailers operate in technical compliance.
Q: How do I spot a fake Black Friday deal?
Three tools: (1) CamelCamelCamel — paste any Amazon URL to see the full price history. If the 'was' price was only set 2–4 weeks before Black Friday, it's manufactured. (2) Google Shopping — compare the item across multiple retailers simultaneously. If only one store shows a 'discount' and others sell at the same price, it's not a deal. (3) Ask whether the item is on your pre-written list at or below the price you researched in October.
Q: What Black Friday deals are actually real?
The most reliably genuine Black Friday deals are: large-screen TVs at end of model year, laptops being cleared for new models, genuine seasonal inventory clearance, software and subscriptions (near-zero marginal cost makes real discounts viable), and items where multiple competing retailers all reduce prices simultaneously. The signal: the item is at or below its price for the preceding 90 days, verifiable on CamelCamelCamel or Google Shopping.